Will $AAPL earnings hurt the market?

Will $AAPL earnings hurt the market?


$AAPL earnings are out and so far things look weaker in $QQQ.  That is no surprise since $AAPL makes up a big chunk of the $QQQ and is the last tech bellwether to report.    A bigger question is if the broader market is running out of reasons to sell off?  The giant question looming is if the election results will scare the bulls into their pens or the bears into their caves.  Right now the answer is leaning toward the later.

$VIX futures don’t care after hours

How would I know this?  I don’t know but I am guessing, since the poor showing by $AAPL is moving the $VIX futures only modestly afterhours.   By tomorrow we could see a full $1 move in the Nov futures to the mid-18s.  A 5%+ move in the futures is not good for $VXX or $UVXY.  That still leaves the election to contend with for next week.

Charts by CBOE LiveVol

Trade War Rally

By far the biggest response was from the Xi/Trump phone call on Trade War progress.  $SPX wants to rip on any sign of movement there as the 9 month old Trade War moves to a possible, I stress possible, conclusion.  Stocks really want to see that since that was where the old high was in Jan and the recent highs in Sep when things were supposed to be going well on the Trade War front.  All the China sensitive stocks ripped and whether they can maintain momentum is another thing.

Less Reasons for Volatility

Tech Earnings, $AAPL, Trade Wars, Interest Rates and the election were enough to spark a cascade selloff in Oct.  By the end of next week, many of these issues will get resolved. Trade War talks happening late Nov set up yet another Xmas bounce and volatility crush.    Dec $VXX puts could play with a $VIX Nov call just in case.  We could see a bump in $SPX too just not the old highs.

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Disclosure: positions in $AAPL, $VXX, $SPY/$SPX

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