This Indicator Could Spell Trouble

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I have a 4 factor indicator system in my VIX Traffic Light.

The most commonly known and easiest to visualize is the VIX future curve…on its own a decent indicator of the market

WHen the VIX curve is in a contango, in general markets go higher and VIX futures and VIX ETP’s tend to lose dollars.

We are BACK in contango.

Yet all is not perfect. Another piece of the light is not flashing green.

We are at a new recent high in the S&P 500.

Yet, VIX was somewhat bid today.

Vol is higher now that it was a week ago when markets fell apart.

This could be that although ‘realized volatility’ has fallen, it seems to have found a floor. It might even be rising.

Intraday volatility is in fact up (look at 10 DAY ATR for instance).

This is another sign that maybe there might be more hiccups in the market coming.

Markets seem to be prepared for a move.

If we rally it is going to be hard, if we sell off, it is going to be harder.

Your Only Option,


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