Call Buyers are Back!

One of the big themes from the second half of 2020 was the absence of call buyers. Over the last 6 months,  puts have averaged more volume than calls.  Calls averaging about 200k contracts, and puts about 215k. But NOT Tuesday! Take a look at this: Remember,  as much as retail loves to set up…

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The Option Pit Traffic Light for VIX is Yellow

The Option Pit VIX traffic light has teetered on changing colors a couple of times over the last two weeks. The move on Monday was enough to trip it to yellow. Two main pieces of the indicator moved it. First the VIX went partially “backward.” No Im not talking about Marty McFly and back to…

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Customer Trades a Big March Put Spread in VIX

I’ts the beginning of the year and BAM!! A customer put on a pretty big trade in the VIX. Early in the 1st trading session for the year,  a customer executed a large block of VIX put spreads in March… The Customer bought 10,000 of the March 22 puts and paid $1.97To reduce the cost…

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Oil Volatility is Probably Too Cheap

“Oil Volatility is Probably Too Cheap” In Wednesday’s webinar ‘2021 Trading Secrets Every Investor Needs to Know’ Frank Gregory (our resident DC Insider) pointed out that the 1st thing new President Joe Biden wants to do is rejoin the Paris Accords. To many this might mean ‘oil is going to sell off.’ I personally think…

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Today, December 30th VIX Forecast

Hey Traders, The VIX Light is Red, but barely. This means that while I still expect the VIX to fall over the next 2 weeks, I’m less sure about it than I was yesterday. Why? While there are several drivers in my VIX Light that moved on Tuesday, the one that stuck out the most…

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ALARM!!(NOT!)… VIX Light Inside

Hey Traders, The S&P 500 was up just under 1% on Monday. The VIX was up slightly as well …   This would sound the alarms, as one of the pieces of our volatility trading system is how the VIX is correlating to the S&P 500. The VIX, because of the way volatility is calculated versus…

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The Vaccine + TLT

Dear Trader, The government is about to spend close to a trillion dollars on covid relief. The vaccine is being distributed, and in a matter of months, it appears there will be some beginning of normalcy. This means spending and a return to employment for a lot of hospitality workers (hopefully nearly all of them).…

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Are you taking Christmas Eve off? I’m Not + Here’s Why

Hey there Trader, Often, traders take Christmas Eve off. After all, the market is only open until 1pm EST. But taking today off is a mistake, and I’ll tell you exactly why I’ll be looking to be in–>out of quick positions in today’s trading session. First, let’s talk about yesterday. As we predicted, the air…

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Rudolph Is Lighting The VIX

I made a Christmas gift for you. Check it out… Hey Traders, Despite some jitters that still clearly exist in the market, traders are positioned in VIX for it to fall. Let’s check out the action in the VIX to see why… With December expiring today and settling at 23.15, traders moved right to January…

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Upside Surprise. Watch Out?

Hey traders, As you know the VIX Index gets its number from the trading of SPX options with 30 days to expire. I thought I would take a look at SPX positioning for options that expire tomorrow afternoon. I am wondering if the market is positioned for a cocktail of the Covid Vaccine getting based…

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