YOLO driving The VIX Light to Yellow?

While the S&P 500 had a wild Monday morning, by the time I started writing this the SPX was only down about 8 points. Yet the VIX is near 25. Why? Well we have 2 markets: YOLO (you only live once stocks)….and everything else. While YOLO drives headlines,  everything else is in fact,  pretty darn…

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VIX Futures Are Heading for a Fall

For the first time in a long time, the VIX is starting to feel heavy… Like it WANTS to go down. On Thursday, the market had a nice mid-day dip … yet the VIX didn’t go crazy.   When the S&P 500 went from up 10 (3860) to flat in the final minutes of the day,…

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BIG Money in a Few Minutes

First thing Wednesday morning I told you that the SPX Jan 20 straddle was too cheap ahead of Joe Biden’s inauguration. The straddle had closed Tuesday at $27. If someone was long that straddle, they had a pretty nice day, raking in a one-day return of 100%. While I did not have that particular straddle…

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Fall in Love With February Profits

Below is a three-month chart of the January Futures contract: I circled the spot where December rolled off and January became the front month (the month of the nearest expiration date) future: Notice what happened to the contract over the next three days … It died and went close to contract lows. The EXACT same…

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The VIX Curve is SUPER, SUPER FLAT

If you don’t know what a planking exercise looks like, here is a picture: Basically, the person exercising tries to make their body as flat as possible. So the VIX is, in fact, planking: From February through September there is almost NO difference in futures price. This is not unusual when we are in a…

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Size Up OTM VXX Call Spread Says WARNING

Yesterday was not a big deal. The key: We have seen much more volatility on rallies than we have on sell offs. I mean 25 points is not nearly what we moved on Thursday of last week. While that is a nice uptick from the movement the VIX was showing in the prior few weeks,  10…

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Twitter Controversy is good for Volatility

I have said multiple times:  politics do not matter… …except when they have a deep economic impact. Over the weekend Twitter permanently banned President Trump. Let me be clear…this is apolitical… Banning President Trump is a bad economic decision for Twitter. The president has millions upon millions of followers. These people are going to use…

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The Option Pit VIX Traffic Light Goes Red

The VIX traffic light was dead on when it switched from Red to Yellow. “But Mark,  the VIX went up, and then down,  and is back where it started…how is this dead on?” You might ask. Remember,  a yellow light does NOT mean that the VIX is going higher. A yellow light means the VIX…

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Making Trading Sense of the Capital Being Stormed

Wednesday was a political event (and sad in that someone lost their life). However,  as the VIX was popping and markets were selling off,  I was not jumping on the long volatility bandwagon. I was shorting vol. In Little John I made the call to buy puts on UVXY. I also used that time to…

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